According to the calculations of renowned scientists, the German team will win their fourth European Championship title at the stadium in Kiev on the night of the 1st of July. Defeated in the final: Spain – if only with much luck.
Employees of the German Sports University in Cologne and at the International School of Management in Frankfurt are certain that this is how it will happen. Fans of the German team will at least have more reason to be hopeful due to the scientific Euro 2012 predictions.
Interestingly enough the same scientists predicted that Holland would be eliminated during the group stages, which has come true.
The possible Euro 2012 results were predicated via a two-tier model. They took into account various factors, including the market value of the teams, odds and special random factors.
In particular, the chance factor is assigned a decisive role. “The closer the calculated statistical values are, so the lower the assumed difference in quality between the opposing teams, the greater the impact of random events,” says Professor Bernd Giezek, a business mathematician at the International School of Management.
Random chance factor becomes more important
In football there is a chance factor in the luck subcategory, such as refereeing decisions or goalpost shots, and the daily form. This has enormous influence on supposedly top teams. According to findings obtained by the Hamburg Institute of International Economics from the Bundesliga and the English Premier League, the influence of random events in matches between two equally strong teams is estimated to be about 50 percent.
According to simulations based on these models Poland and Russia (Group A), Germany and Portugal (group B), Spain and Italy (group C), France and England (Group D) were predicted to emerge top of their groups and to move on to the quarterfinals. With exception of the Group A predictions this has indeed turned out to be true.
However, the predictions for Euro 2012 went as far as to say that Poland’s host/home advantage factors would propel them as far as the semi-finals. In stark contrast to the forecast the co-hosts of the tournament have already been eliminated after the Group stage.
The scientists went on to outline that the quarter-finals may not be very spectacular. Their predicted match-ups of teams for the quarter-finals have not coincided with the actual match-ups. They did however forecast that Germany, Spain, and France would progress whilst England would be eliminated.
The scientific pundits next forecast was that Germany would narrowly beat France in the semi-finals and Spain would beat their opponent (then thought to be Poland). In the final, random chance would again be a big factor and Germany are to beat the favorites from Spain.
For betting enthusiasts the studies offer some interesting Euro 2012 tips, particularly in regards to which betting odds markets to focus on. In the last three instances of the tournament the most common match results were 2:1, 1:0 and 2:0. According to the experts however, the European Championships this summer will produce more goals than the previous competition. (77 goals, 2.48 average per game).
Punters should bet on more goals being scored
There is a scientific reason for the increased scoring forecast for this tournament. The average number of goals in European championships and World Cups corresponds strikingly with the goal averages of the previous Champions League season. Shortly before the end of the most recent Champions League a total of 347 goals were scored in 125 games (without penalties), which makes on average 2.8 goals per game. Scientists now expect a total of about 85 goals, so an increase to about 2.7 goals per game.
All this is of course subject to change. Perhaps all football fans should also remember a quote from the Bayern boss Karl-Heinz Rummenigge. “Football,” he said “is not mathematics.”